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Low Interest Rates and Asset Price Fluctuations: Empirical Evidence
Ali, Bano ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
The thesis focuses on estimating the effect of expansionary monetary policy concerning asset prices, specifically house and stock prices as they are of pri- mary importance in financial markets. A structural vector autoregressive model is used including data for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, instead of short-term nominal interest rate, the shadow policy rate is used to measure the stance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. It is useful when policy rates of central banks are at or near zero as it neglects the zero-lower bound. Using both impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, results suggest that higher interest rates are indeed associated with lower asset prices. That is confirmed by including two different estimates of shadow rates into the model and observing the effect for two specific types of assets. More precisely, house prices react almost immediately showing the most substantial decrease for the United Kingdom, while stock prices slightly increase at first and de- crease afterward with similar size of the effect for all areas under consideration. Finally, the discussion of how the monetary authority should react to asset price fluctuations is provided, summarizing the vast amount of literature...
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How Can the Czech National Bank Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates? A Case Study
Katinová, Alexandra ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kolcunová, Dominika (referee)
The thesis provides case study research on the feasibility of the negative in- terest rate policy in the context of the Czech Republic. No major obstacles opposing the policy itself were found in the bases of the Czech legal system, however, a list of acts explicitly affected by the value of policy rates needs to be adjusted to prevent misinterpretations. Moreover, it was identified that tax prepayments held by the Tax Authority and free reserves kept at the Czech National Bank at zero interest rate create room for escaping from the policy. Additionally, debt repayments in cash and interest-free accounts of government and public institutions administrated by the Czech National Bank could lead to undesirable advantages. A complementary VAR model analysis of the interest rate transmission under negative policy rates was performed to evaluate quan- titatively the experience from European countries, however, short data series available provided merely indicative results.
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Estimating the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank’s policy rate
Kolcunová, Dominika ; Havránek, Tomáš
This paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound on the Czech National Bank’s policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be preferable to holding deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated on the basis of the storage, insurance and transport costs of cash and the loss of convenience associated with cashless payments. This estimate is complemented by a calculation based on interest charges reflecting the impact of negative rates on banks’ profitability. Overall, we get a mean of slightly below –1%, approximately in the interval (–2.0%, –0.4%). In addition, by means of a vector autoregression we show that the potential of negative rates is not sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing similar in its effects to the impact of the Czech National Bank’s exchange rate commitment during the years 2013–2017.
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Non-standard Monetary Policy Instruments of Central Banks
Šikulová, Markéta ; Bažantová, Ilona (advisor) ; Dupáková, Lenka (referee)
Non-standard Monetary Policy Instruments of Central Banks Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze non-standard monetary instruments of central banks and their impact on the example of concrete use of these instruments by the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank. The first part of this study defines the essence, the implementors, the tasks, and the objectives of the monetary policy. Its tools are also disassembled, both standard and nonstandard. From non-standard instruments, closer attention is paid to the theoretical definition of quantitative easing, negative interest rates and long-term maintenance of the exchange rate commitment. I also deal with the legal anchor, organization, purpose, history, and concept of the monetary policy of two selected central banks, namely the CNB and the ECB. The next part of the study presents the concrete form of non-standard measures used by the CNB and the ECB, it deals with the specific reasons that the central banks led to their implementation, the objectives with which they were adopted and the impact these measures had on the Czech economy and the euro area. Based on the analysis, it is possible to confirm the tested hypothesis that the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank have succeeded in meeting the objectives set before their...
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How Can the Czech National Bank Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates? A Case Study
Katinová, Alexandra ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kolcunová, Dominika (referee)
The thesis provides case study research on the feasibility of the negative in- terest rate policy in the context of the Czech Republic. No major obstacles opposing the policy itself were found in the bases of the Czech legal system, however, a list of acts explicitly affected by the value of policy rates needs to be adjusted to prevent misinterpretations. Moreover, it was identified that tax prepayments held by the Tax Authority and free reserves kept at the Czech National Bank at zero interest rate create room for escaping from the policy. Additionally, debt repayments in cash and interest-free accounts of government and public institutions administrated by the Czech National Bank could lead to undesirable advantages. A complementary VAR model analysis of the interest rate transmission under negative policy rates was performed to evaluate quan- titatively the experience from European countries, however, short data series available provided merely indicative results.
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Low Interest Rates and Asset Price Fluctuations: Empirical Evidence
Ali, Bano ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
The thesis focuses on estimating the effect of expansionary monetary policy concerning asset prices, specifically house and stock prices as they are of pri- mary importance in financial markets. A structural vector autoregressive model is used including data for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, instead of short-term nominal interest rate, the shadow policy rate is used to measure the stance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. It is useful when policy rates of central banks are at or near zero as it neglects the zero-lower bound. Using both impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, results suggest that higher interest rates are indeed associated with lower asset prices. That is confirmed by including two different estimates of shadow rates into the model and observing the effect for two specific types of assets. More precisely, house prices react almost immediately showing the most substantial decrease for the United Kingdom, while stock prices slightly increase at first and de- crease afterward with similar size of the effect for all areas under consideration. Finally, the discussion of how the monetary authority should react to asset price fluctuations is provided, summarizing the vast amount of literature...
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Negative interest rates as a monetary policy measure
Tvrdek, Filip ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Žamberský, Pavel (referee)
Bachelor thesis examines negative interest rates used as a monetary policy measure. In the first part, theoretic overview and description of current macroeconomic developments are provided, as well as reasons which led central banks to implement unconventional policy steps. In the main part of the thesis, possible effects of negative interest rate policy are presented and verified using the example of five economies - Sweden, Denmark, euro area, Switzerland and Japan. The final assessment states that negative interest rate policy brings mixed results with strong possible threats in the future.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Slanina, Šimon ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
A vigorous advancement in the field of information technologies allows practical use of sophisticated, computing power consuming methods. One of these is the Monte Carlo simulations method, which relies on generating an immense number of stochastic scenarios and can effectively solve problems in areas such as physics or mathematics. Entities in the banking sector are constantly exposed to many kinds of risks, for instance the occurrence of negative interest rates. These risks need to be taken into account, monitored, measured and managed. Even the Monte Carlo method, usable in banking for risk measurement, has its weaknesses that need to be considered, and requires certain conditions to be met. It is crucial to correctly approximate the probability distribution and to create a sufficient number of random scenarios, to use a reliable random number generator and to bear in mind any possible sequential dependencies amongst the input data. In the practical part of this work, I analyzed the development of the London Interbank Offered Rate with a three-month maturity based on the US dollar during the years 2000 to 2016 and, using the Monte Carlo method, I tried to predict its future development as well. I came to the conclusion that the method should be used for forecasting in shorter time horizons, considering it provides significantly wider ranges of the rate's possible values at all probability levels while forecasting for longer time horizons. Via stress test, I also found that the method I applied doesn't really reflect rare short-term shocks in the resulting predictions. Neither the Monte Carlo method nor the TRADING ECONOMICS website anticipate the LIBOR USD 3M rate to fall below zero during the time horizon ending in 2020.
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Negative interest rates in the context of deflation threats
Jenis, Filip ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
The introduction of negative interest rates, as an additional tool of unconventional monetary policy in recent years, leads to many, yet largely polarized debates about the implications of the unconventional monetary policy of central banks. The main reason for their introduction in some economies, namely the threat of deflation, is also questioned, as well as the negative side effects of this instrument on financial stability and economic growth, and finally, their limited scope is under scrutiny. Due to the still insufficient research in this field, the aim of the diploma thesis is to evaluate the concerns and the main long-term risks and impacts of the monetary policy using negative interest rates in the context of deflation threats. The analysis of available data confirms both the concerns about the negative effects of negative interest rates on the banking sector, the recovery process of public finances, the possible rise of a price bubble on the financial markets and real estate markets, or on the possibility of excessive risk taking, and on the other hand draws attention to the direct dependence between negative impacts and the duration of monetary policy using negative interest rates.
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Negative Interest Rates - How Far Can They Go?
Ján, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Jašová, Martina (referee)
Bachelor thesis is focused on one of the most topical themes in the field of a monetary policy, the negative interest rates. Until recent times the effective lower bound of interest rates imposed by central banks was thought to be the strict null but macroeconomic conditions of certain European countries or Japan made policy makers start to experiment with the unexplored tool of a monetary policy. They broke the zero lower bound and employed the negative interest rates. Since it seems that the effective lower bound would not be zero but it is situated in the negative territory probably - and the thesis tries to find such a value. The discussion starts at the beginning of the twentieth century with the well-known economist Silvio Gesell, then continues to present and gives a view of the countries, which have already implemented negative interest rates in some form. Additionally, the thesis is focused on the issue concerning an increase in risks presented by the financial markets arising from this monetary policy. Last but not least, it takes into account the problem of the substitution from electronic money to cash, how this constraint can be overcome and on what level of negative interest rates this could take place.
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